Knowing what will come next in tech, media and telco trends has become a key competitive differentiator and can give your business a leading edge. Deloitte’s predictions are based on hundreds of conversations with industry executives, and tens of thousands of online interviews with members of the public around the world.
1. One became many: the tablet market stratifies
The compact tablet, with an 8.5 inch or smaller screen, will become the predominant size of tablet. The surge in sales of compact tablets is driving a stratification of the tablet base, similar but more profound than that experienced in the smartphone market over the last two years. Aside from screen size, tablets are also diversifying by weight, processor speed, memory capacity and price.
2. Wearables: the eyes have it
Global revenues for smart glasses, fitness bands and watches should exceed £2 billion in 2014. The most successful category, smart glasses, are likely to be priced at about £300 and sell about 4 million units. People are used to wearing watches, but may be less keen to charge them on a daily basis, so we expect demand for smart watches to be two million units. The appeal of fitness bands may diminish if owners’ quantified exercise levels decline.
3. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): not disruptive yet, but the future looks bright
Student registrations in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) will be up to over 10 million courses, a 100% increase over 2012. The low completion rates mean that less than 0.2% of all tertiary education courses completed in 2014 will be MOOCs. By 2020, however, over 10% of all courses taken in tertiary and enterprise continuing education may be MOOCs.
4. Doubling up on pay TV
By year-end 2014 between 50 and 100 million homes around the world will have access to, two or more separate pay TV subscriptions – generating about £3 billion in revenues.
Over the course of the coming years, the number of households with multiple subscriptions should continue to rise, as more content owners and aggregators, including platform owners such as cable and satellite providers, make their content portfolios available via subscription video-on-demand. A further stimulus to the market will be the increasing availability of inexpensive HDMI dongles, which connect TV sets to the Web.
5. Television measurement: for better and worse
The measurement of television viewing should become more accurate in the UK, following the introduction of hybrid measurement, which integrates TV viewing on PCs, tablets and smartphones into overall viewing numbers. Accurate measurement is fundamental to the largest ad product in the world: TV advertising, worth £3.9 billion per annum in UK. Hybrid measurement is expected to increase viewing figures for younger age groups – which have the greatest tendency to watch online – by 5%.